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Home > News > 2007 > Government plans emissions increase



For release: April 17, 2007


Government plans emissions increase
Yet combating climate change is affordable


(Ottawa) Canada's greenhouse gas (GHG) pollution will continue rising for several more years and remain well above Kyoto targets beyond 2020 if government plans leaked to Canadian Press and reviewed by the Climate Action Network Canada/Réseau action climat Canada (CAN-RAC) are implemented.

The organization expects the federal government's proposal for a new national GHG target to be defended based on dire cost predictions for meeting Canada's Kyoto obligations. Not only is the Government not listening to Canadians, these projections are not based on real world experience or an accurate method of predicting costs. Investment needed to meet the Kyoto target is relatively small in the context of the Canadian economy.

“Canadians want Canada to meet our legal obligations under the Kyoto Protocol. This latest document is just complicated double speak designed to hide the fact that the government is turning its back on the environment. We demand a Kyoto Plan, nothing else will do,” said John Bennett, spokesperson for ClimateForChange.

The leaked plan would allow Canada's GHG pollution to continue rising until 2012 and then fall by 2020 to 20% below the current (2006) level - but this is still more than 10% above Canada's Kyoto target, supposed to be met during 2008-12. The plan also fails to provide a convincing explanation of why the measures it contains would actually ensure that these extremely weak objectives are met. The government still intends to set "intensity" targets for industrial emissions - despite the fact that intensity targets allow actual emissions to continue increasing. In addition, the draft outlines large loopholes that would allow industry to claim targets were being met without actually reducing emissions in the target period.

There are well-documented examples of industry and government cost projections being hugely over-estimated when compared to real world experiences. These include:

  • Reducing acid rain causing emissions proved to be a profitable investment for companies like INCO.

  • The Montreal Protocol to eliminate chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs), the international treaty that is the model for Kyoto Protocol, was greeted with predictions of economic catastrophe in 1987. Dupont eliminated the production of CFCs, found profitable alternatives and is now one of the companies leading the way in greenhouse gas reductions.

The National Resources Defense Council did a comparison of industry-estimated costs of reducing car emissions over the past forty years and the actual costs and found that, “Industry estimate were 2 to 10 times higher then actual costs,” said Emilie Moorhouse of the Sierra Club of Canada.

The Canadian economy is expected to grow at 2.4% a year to 2020. Extending that to 2030 implies an economy about 40% larger today's $1.4 trillion economy, (almost $2 trillion). Projected GDP losses from these models based on overestimated costs and underestimating technological potential are less than 0.05% of GDP.

“The Government wants Canadians to believe only its approach is affordable. But that is not true. If we can afford to forego between $40 to 80 billion (i.e. one percent GST cut over six years is $39.6B) then they can afford to deal with climate change,” said Dale Marshall, Climate Change Policy Analyst, David Suzuki Foundation.

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